Experts on China believe it is studying Russia’s war in Ukraine to improve its war plans and policies with Taiwan. It has long claimed the island as part of China, which is partly self-governing.
Russia has made similar allegations about parts of Ukraine, citing a February 24 attack on the independent state.
Russia in Ukraine is facing stiffer resistance than expected. International economic sanctions have weakened Russia’s efforts and foreign military aid has strengthened Ukraine’s defense.
Some experts believe that China is looking for ways to quickly take control of Taiwan. They think the military will attack the island’s communications centers and major political institutions.
The attack is more complex than the sea, says Chen Yi-fan. He is an assistant professor of diplomacy and international relations at Tamkang University in Taiwan. He says China needs more training and weapons, such as artillery and missiles to attack from the sea.
“Most importantly,” Chen said, “China must command a high level of morality cognitive dust and press conversationHe said.
China-Taiwan talks ended in 2016 after Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen came to power. His political party opposes unification with China. The Chinese Air Force flies almost daily from Taiwan’s air defenses.
China has never refused to use force to unite the two sides.
Alexander Huang is the head of an army strategy Research Center in Taipei. He said China would look for a fight that focuses on dismantling Taiwan’s military systems and ousting the Taiwanese leadership.
Like the rest of the world, China is witnessing a global response to Russian aggression and the war in Ukraine. Tong Zhao says Chinese officials are likely to reconsider their predictions about how the world will deal with China if it attacks Taiwan. He works at the Tsinghua Global Policy Center in Beijing.
Zhao says China is very surprised by the West’s reaction to the war. “I think it shows that even … Russian experts … didn’t know there would be such strong international support from Ukraine. I think Chinese experts are starting to work re-evaluate these strategies and policies. “
China is more dependent on foreign countries for economic power than Russia. According to UN estimates, China exported about 15 percent of the world’s goods between 1978 and 2020.
Alexander Huang said Beijing officials are likely seeking a non-military solution to the dispute. Taiwan and China have been at odds since 2016 over how to deal with each other – as separate countries, parts of China or something else.
The Ukrainian war has shown China that disaster can result from a failed military solution.
“This,” Juan said, “could make Beijing think more about other measures ….”
I am Katie Weaver.
Ralph Jennings reported this to VOA. Jonathan Evans adapted this story for learning English. Katie Weaver edited it.
The words in this story
Cognitive – adj. related to conscious intellectual activity, such as thinking, meditating, remembering, imagining, or learning words)
conversation – n. conversation; long conversations on this or that topic
re-evaluate – c) re-evaluating something or someone, especially in relation to changes or new information
strategy – n. a carefully designed plan or method to achieve the goal or skill of developing and implementing such a plan or method