By Skip Rigney
My The woman is a gardener in the family. In March he looks at our dead flower beds and imagines them turning into colorful shelters for butterflies, bees and birds, in such a way that every little part of my brain’s ability to grow flowers Destroy living idle. As the spring buds sprout, so does its energy. He does weeding, digging, weeding, fertilizing, and mulching.
How can I contribute to this extraordinary enterprise of creativity and energy? I occasionally make trips to buy trash such as garbage and mulch. I listen because he patiently explains the advantages and disadvantages of different options for the location of cone flowers and xenia.
While I really have no idea where he should put the cone flowers or the xenia, when he asks me for a weather forecast, I proudly answer that I will go to the National Air Services (NWS) website. Look at the page and look at the different types. Computer air models.
So, on Monday morning when she asked about the arrival and intensity of the rain, after a brief consultation with my computer, I said confidently: “Tuesday morning, dear. We will have 0.75 to 1.50 inches. Let it rain.
She responded by shifting the botanical intensity to even higher gears. By getting the last plants in the ground, fertilizing them, and replacing the bags and bags, and completing a few bags of mulch on Monday, our (although he works 98 percent), they Kindly tell them “Our. Flower beds will be in better condition to take advantage of Tuesday’s rain.”
Tuesday morning began with air with gray, predictable skies. My wife innocently asked: When will it rain here? I checked the radar. Feelings of anxiety and frustration began to creep into me as I looked at the green, yellow and red spots on the screen. Why were they so far north? Why were they more fragmented, less integrated, than predicted Monday’s global and medium-scale models for Tuesday morning?
I quickly switched from real radar reality to the final set of predictions from NWS’s first short-range computer model, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model. NWS runs HRRR every hour for the continental United States, which is much more than the six hours of NWS international models. HRRR is also distinguished by the most complex, highly detailed integration of recent radar data. The result is that the HRRR is often the best tool for forecasting the weather for the next one to twelve hours.
As of Tuesday morning, HRRR had predicted that a severe storm in south-central Mississippi would actually gather in a heavy line that would move south, eventually reaching one to three inches in the northern half of Pearl River County. It’s raining cats and dogs.
But my wife and I and our flower beds live in South Pearl River County, east of Pacquiao. HRRR predicted that the line would weaken over time as it reached us, and that we would be happy to get even a tenth of an inch.
Thankfully HRRR was so disappointing. We finished a quarter of an inch. Dryer than my original forecast, but wet enough to keep my job as a family flower predictor.