Trading range-bound holiday markets, bears eye low hanging fruit

Trading range-bound holiday markets, bears eye low hanging fruit

  • USD/JPY bears are lurking for low-hanging fruit.
  • A break of recent lows opens risk of a downside move to 138.00.

With US markets closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving, liquidity will likely be thinner than usual which means in the absence of traders, sideways choppy price action is in play. However, that is not to say there have not been opportunities in the New York session as the following illustrates:

USD/JPY M1 chart

As seen, the price at the start of the session broke a trendline resistance and established equal lows around 138.15 before violating those and subsequently moving higher, all the while remaining on the back side of the counter trendline.

There is a similar scenario playing out for the downside, as shown above, although the volumes in forex have petered out being so late in the day, so there is a lack of momentum. Nonetheless, the setup is as follows:

USD/JPY H1 chart

USD/JPY M15 chart

The price recently broke onto the backside of the trendline and that usually would be followed by a correction from below resistance.

USD/JPY M5 chart

There is low hanging fruit for the bears below recent consolidation lows and the sideways channel.

USD/JPY M1 chart

The minute chart shows the price trapped in a sideways chop but a violation of the recent equal highs points to prospects of a test of the price imbalance for mitigation. This could be the trigger for a stronger move to the downside and a test of equal lows. A break there opens the risk of a move into 138.00 the figure. However, until volumes return, in Asia and Frankfurt, sideways price action is the name of the game.

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